模型参数不确定性对电力系统时域仿真的影响

Impact of uncertainty of model parameters on power system time domain simulation

由于模型参数的近似处理和量测误差的存在,电力系统仿真模型参数的数值具有不确定性。采用蒙特卡罗方法来分析这些不确定性对电力系统仿真计算结果的影响。主要分析了经典模型下发电机的原动机输入机械功率、发电机的转子惯性常数以及仿真计算的初值的不确定性对时域仿真结果的影响。利用新英格兰10机39节点算例的计算结果分析总结了不同参数的不确定性对时域仿真的影响,也证明了采用蒙特卡罗方法研究电力系统仿真不确定性问题的可行性。

Due to the approximation and measurement errors to model parameters, there is uncertainty in the parameter value of power system simulation model. Monte Carlo method is introduced in this paper to analyze the impact of uncertainty of model parameters on power system time domain simulation. The impacts of the uncertainty of mechanical power inputs, inertia constants and initial values for classical model on simulation results are discussed. With results of New England 10-unit 39-bus system, the impacts of the uncertainty of different parameters on power system simulation are generalized and the feasibility of Monte Carlo method in dealing with uncertainties in power system simulation is also verified.