黑线姬鼠种群数量动态及预测预报模型研究

Study on the Seasonal Population Dynamics and Prediction of Apodemus agrarius

对1987—2005年贵州省余庆县黑线姬鼠种群数量动态及种群数量进行分析预测,结果表明:黑线姬鼠年均捕获率为6.90%±2.57%,一年内在5—6月和10—11月出现2次数量高峰期,最高峰在6月,不同年度、不同月份、不同季节之间种群数量存在显著差异。制定了黑线姬鼠种群数量分级标准。建立了应用早春3月种群数量基数(X1)、4月种群数量×4月繁殖指数(X2)预测数量高峰期6月种群密度(Y)的2个短期预测预报模型:Y=1.3669X1+5.6175;Y=0.4988X2+7.2940,可提前3个月和2个月预测当年数量峰种群密度和发生程度,经回测验证,数值和数量级预测值与实测值基本相符,数值预测平均吻合率为86.61%和86.11%,数量级预测吻合率均为78.95%,结果比较准确,故该预测预报模型具有一定的实用性和可行性。

The population dynamics and population quantity of Apodemus agrarius have been analyzed and predicted in Yuqing County Guizhou Province from 1987 to 2005. The results show that average annual capture rate is 6.90%±2.57%; there are two peaks in population development, first peak appears in May- June and second in October-November each year, the highest is in June; there are significant differences of stocks in different year, different months, and different seasons. The Apodemus agrarius population quantity graduation standard has been formulated. March stocks （X1） of established applications base, April stocks quantity × April reproductive index （X2） June stocks forecast peak volume density （Y） of two short-term forecast models are Y=1.3669X1＋5.6175. Y=0.4988X2＋7.2940, May forecast the number of degree and occurred degree two months or three months in advance, and after the reverse running and confirmation, the value and magnitude prediction data accord to the actual data, the value prediction average tallying rate is 86.61% and 86.11%, the magnitude prediction average tallying rate is 78.95%. The result is almost accurate, and therefore these prediction models have usability and the feasibility.