中国六大遗产地旅游非线性成长及比较研究

Research on non-linear growth model and comparision of 6 scenery area′s tourism development in China

在Batler旅游生命周期理论的基础上,提出了旅游地的非线性成长模式.把旅游地单周期成长看做S形曲线,界定了导入点、转折点、成熟点、逻辑边界等概念;把旅游地更长期成长过程看成是具有分岔结构的非线性模式,给出了分岔点及4种不同成长模式;以鼎湖山、九寨沟、泰山、黄山、张家界、秦兵马俑6个遗产地为例,进行了数值模拟和实证研究.以特征点为基础,对多个景区进行横向比较,探讨了导入点与开发历史、逻辑上界与景区引力、成熟点与成长速度、分岔点与成长模式的关系,从而为旅游地可持续成长研究提供了新的理论.

Based on the Batler＇s tourism area lifecycle, a non-linear growth model is put forward in this paper, It is regard as a S-type growth curve of tourism area growth in one lifecycle, the some new earmark points such as introduction point, turning point, maturation point and logic limits are defined; In the more longer time scale, the growth of tourism area is looked as a non-linear model with branching structure, the branching point and different style of non-liner growth model are described. In the widely investigation, the Dinghushan Mount, Jiuzhaigou Valley, Taishan Mount, Huangshan Mount, Zhang jiajie, Qin＇s Terra-cotta Museum as typical cases, the landscape comparison of six scenery areas with earmark points is studied, and the relationships is discussed that the logic jumpingoff, guide point and exploitation history, logic up boundary, scenery gravitation and growth extent, turning, mature point and growth velocity, bifurcate point, growth model and relation of border lifecycles. It is provided a new theory for tourism sustainable growth.