中国货币供给与产出关系再检验——基于1952—2004年度数据和区域数据的新发现

The Reinspection of the Relationship between Chinese Currency Supply and Output: A New Discovery Based on Annual Data and Area Data in 1952-2004

货币供给和实际产出可能因不同的经济背景而呈现不同的关系模式。本文利用我国1952—2004年的相关数据,考察并刻画了我国不同层次货币供给与产出之间关系的变化过程。同时,文章还描述和分析了我国不同区域产出对不同层次货币冲击的响应过程,并与全国平均水平进行了对比。结果显示,狭义货币与产出的均衡关系惟一且稳定,而流通中现金与产出的关系在改革开放前后呈现两段式的均衡,区域产出对货币供给冲击的反应呈现出显著区别于全国平均水平的特征。

The relationship between currency supply and actual output may present differently under different economic background. This article reviews the changes of the relationship between the currency supply and output of different levels in our country using correlation data in 1952—2004. At the same time, it describes and analyzes how the output responds to currency impulse of different levels in different regions, and compares it to national average level. The result shows that there is a stable equilibrium relation between narrow money and output, but the relationship between impulse and output takes on a 2-stage equilibrium before and after the reform, and regional output responds to money supply differently from that in national average level.