投资与通货膨胀—紧缩的联系:来自中国的经验证据

The relationship between investment and inflation——deflation:evidence from China

基于Toda-Yamamoto长期因果检验程序和广义脉冲反应技术,本文首先研究了全社会实际固定资产投资与零售价格水平变动之间的长期因果及其冲击—动态反应关系,然后进一步考察了货币供给量M1和贸易依存度在促成上述关系中所扮演的角色。其研究结论为:(1)货币供给量M1是唯一的外生变量,其增长不是价格水平变动的直接因,而是通过全社会实际固定资产投资间接地成为价格水平变动的因;(2)贸易依存度和全社会实际固定资产投资之间存在双向因果联系,前者只能通过后者间接地成为价格水平变动的因;(3)中国对外开放既消化又强化了中国生产能力过剩,但消化胜于强化;(4)投资一个单位正向冲击在开始的2—4年左右导致相对温和的通货膨胀,但后五年左右将导致相对严重的通货紧缩。

On the basis of Toda- Yamamoto＇ s longterm cause and effects test program and generalized impulse response technology, this article conducts researches on the longterm cause and effects relationship between total social real fixed investment and the movement of retail price level, and then further examines the role of money supply M 1 and trade interdependence in promoting such relationship. The results are as follows. （ 1 ） Money supply M1 is the sole endogenous variant. Its growth does not directly lead to the movement of price level, but indirectly influences it through total social real fixed investment. （2） There exists a two- way cause and effects relationship between trade interdependence and total social real fixed investment. Only through the latter can the former indirectly influence the movement of price level. （3） China＇ s reform and opening - up policy not only helps to absorb surplus production capacity but also intensifies the problem. However, the absorption effects surpass the intensification results. （4） The positive shock of investing in a unit will lead to mitigate inflation in the first 2 -4 years, but will result in relatively serious deflation in the late five years.