“人口红利”效应与中国经济增长

“ Population dividend” effects and China's economic growth

中国经济“增长奇迹”源于多种因素,“人口红利”是其中最重要的因素之一。当前,我国的人口红利主要表现为较高的劳动人口比例和劳动力配置效率。但人口红利并非可持续。长期看,随着我国人口出生率下降,劳动参与率将下降;短期看,我国城乡劳动力流动障碍依然存在,不利于劳动力配置效率的进一步提高。因此,提高劳动力素质和消除城乡劳动力流动障碍,是实现我国“人口红利”效应最大化的重要措施。

China＇ s economic ＂growth miracle＂ can be attributed to various factors among which ＂population dividend＂ is one of the most important. At present, the main features of population dividend in China are high labor population proportion and labor force allocation efficiency. However, there is no consistent population dividend. In the long run, with the decline in China＇ s birth rate, labor participation rate will come to a lower level. In short term, the barriers influencing labor flow between the urban and rural areas still exist, which is unfavorable to further improvement of labor force allocation efficiency. Therefore, for the maximization of＇population dividend＂ effects in China, it is important to improve the skills and knowledge of labor force and remove the barriers influencing labor flow.