基于改进PSR模型的济南市生态安全评价研究

Study of Ecological Security Assessment for Jinan Based on Reusable PSR Model

雏述了生态安全与生态健康、生态服务功能、生态风险等概念之间的逻辑联系,指出生态安全是其中的核心内容。考察一个城市的生态安全问题可从纵横向进行分析,尝试从纵向来讨论一个城市的生态安全问题。以济南市为例,采用改进的PSR模型构建济南市生态安全评价指标体系,以及采用层次分析法、熵权法相结合的复合数学模型确定指标权重,计算出2000—2005年的济南市生态安全评价综合指数。结果显示,2000年以来济南市生态安全评价综合指数呈稳定上升的状态,但上升的加速度很小。预测分析了济南市短期生态安全状况,提出了实现济南市生态系统安全的建议。

This paper daborated the logic connecttion of several concepts such as ecological security, ecological health, ecological service and ecological risk, pointed that ecological security was on the key position among them. Ecological security problem of a city could be researched in longitudinal or transverse way. As a try, this paper studied the problem in the longitudinal mode. Taking the city d Jinan as an example, the ecological security assessment indicators system was built on PSR（Pressure- State- Response） model which was improved.Index weights of ecological security assessment indicators were deteRmined by comprehensive mathematical model based on AHP and entropy method. The ecological security situations and trends at the time scale （2000- 2005） were analyzed with the composite index of Jinan ecological security assessment. The results expressed that the composite index of the city was increasing steadily since 2000, but with a small acceleration. On the foundation of study the forecast of ecological security was done with the temporal series analysis. Finally, suggestions on the management of ecological security in Jinan were put forward.