城镇建设用地需求预测与配置研究

Study on Prediction of Urban Building Land Demand and Allocation

针对我国现行城镇建设用地预测方法存在的问题,对城镇建设用地预测方法进行了探索性研究;通过构建科学的建设用地需求预测方法,为土地利用规划提供科学依据。在C-D生产函数的基础上,提出了土地、资本与产出GDP的要素关系模型、恩格尔系数与人均建设用地面积关系模型和时间序列的ARIMA建设用地模型。对成都市城镇建设用地总量进行了实证分析,对4种预测方法的结果进行了定量评价,并据此提出成都市建设用地的配置方案。

Aiming at the problem in the actual predication methods on urban building land, an exploratory research was carried out on these methods. This paper provided a scientific evidence to land use planning on the basis of reasonable methods of predicating urban building land demand. Based on Cobb-douglas Production Function, innovated a relational model comprises urban building land, capital,and GDP. There was a negative correlation between Engel coefficient and per capita urban building land space through theory analysis. This paper set up a predication model on this foundation,and an ARIMA model based on urban building land demand. In view of the above, the authors formulated a combination allocation plan on urban building land in Chengdu city.