三峡库区开县30年耕地变化分析

Change of Cultivated Land Area in Kaixian County in the Past 30 Years

研究目的:分析开县耕地变化及驱动力,为耕地资源的合理利用与保护提供指导。研究方法:采用主成分分析法,分析各指标间的相关性,提取两组主成分并分析各主成分中指标因子的载荷矩阵。运用多元线性回归法建立耕地变化驱动模型。研究结果:开县耕地面积数量30年来一直呈减少趋势。影响耕地面积变化的主要因子:年末总人口、牧业产值、水果产量、城市化率、公路通车总里程、林业产值等。研究结论:开县耕地面积减少的主要原因:总人口增加,城乡发展导致大量耕地被占用;产业结构调整,改变了传统的农耕生产;退耕还林政策的实施。预测了开县2008年、2010年、2015年、2020年的耕地面积。

The purpose of the paper is to contribute to rational use and protection of cultivated land in Kaixian by analyzing the change of cultivated land area and its driving forces. Method of component analysis was used in which the correlations of indicators were analyzed and two components were abstracted to analyze the indicator matrix. The results indicate the total area of cultivated land in Kaixian had been decreasing in the past 30 years. The major indicators influencing the area change of cultivated land included total population, livestock production, fruit production, urbanization rate, total length of highways and forestry production. In conclusion, the decrease of cultivated land area in Kaixian County results from the population growth, the rural and urban development, the adjustment of industrial structures and the policy of returning cultivated land to forest. The area of cultivated land of 2008, 2010, 2015 and 2020 are predicted.