90年代浙江城镇洪涝灾害分析及其展望

The Town Flood Analysis and Outlook in Zhejiang Province for 1990s

本文运用５００年洪涝史料记载和现代气象、水文降水资料记录模拟划定出诸暨县不同级别洪涝序列，然后对序列进行气候统计和对太阳黑子进行相关分析，并应用现代数理统计灰色理论中的ＧＭ（１，１）模型、自回归ＡＲ（Ｐ）模型、自回归滑动ＡＲＭＡ（（ｐ，ｑ）模型和马尔可夫链等数理统计模型对序列分别进行计算，经综合分析作出未来１０年出现不同级别洪涝的展望，为灾害的评估、城镇规划、工业布局及防洪对策提供科学依据．

By using the flood data in past 500 years and meteorological data in recent years,some grade sequences of flood in Zhuji County have been made,then analysis to the sequences and their relation to the sunspot period were taken. The time sequences were calculated by using some grey theories of contemporary mathematic statistics,they are the modle of GM (1,1),the AR(P)modle of self-regression,the moving ARMA(p,q) modle of self-regression,and Markov chain. After comprehensive analysis,the authores have made the outlook of different grade flood in next decade. It is a scientific basis for assessment of flood disaster,plan of town and industrial estate,and countermeasure of prevent flood.