融资结构、不良资产与中国M_2/GDP

Structure of Financing,Non-performing Loans and M_2/GDP

对中国M2/GDP表现异常的解释至少需要说明两个现象,一是M0/GDP在1980年至1993年保持上升趋势,但1993年以后则相对比较稳定,而M2/GDP在1985年以后一直保持上升趋势;二是什么因素导致中国M2/GDP比其他国家高。从货币基础理论出发,本文认为银行主导的金融系统和商业银行巨额不良资产的存在是导致中国M2/GDP异常的主要因素。

The paper shows that the explanations to the high ratio of M_2 to GDP in China at least make two questions clear.One is that the ratio of M_0 to GDP has kept rising from 1980 to 1993,and kept being stable afterwards, but the ratio of M_2 to GDP has kept rising ever since 1985. Few attentions have been given to this phenomenon in the literature. Another is the reason why the ratio of M_2 to GDP in China has been larger than that of other countries. We argued that the large ratio of M_2 to GDP is the result of the financial system of banking dominating and large amounts of non-performing loans in the balance sheet of financial intermediaries in China.