中国农民工对GDP的贡献测算

Measurement of Migrant Worker’s Contribution to China’s GDP

利用农业部农村固定观察点的数据,采用最小二乘法和前沿随机生产函数极大似然法,测算了农民工对全国第二三产业产值增长的贡献。研究结果表明,1995～2005年,如果假设农民工劳动生产率与城市产业工人一样,则农民工对中国第二三产业产值贡献占到这些产业产值的4%～6.5%;如果假设农民工劳动生产率低于城市产业工人,则农民工对中国第二三产业产值贡献占到这些产业产值的0.46%～1.28%,而且贡献份额有逐年增长的趋势。

This thesis utilizes data from Ministry of Agriculture and used OLS and MLE to estimate C-D production function, and measures migrant workers＇ contribution to China＇s GDP. Results： If we supposed the productivity of migrant worker is the same as that of city worker, then migrant workers created 4% of production of industry and service sector in 1995; in 2005, 6.5%. If we supposed the productivity of migrant worker is lower than that of city worker, then the share is 0.46% and 1.28% respectively, and the share is increasing.