复杂仿真系统可信度量化研究

Research on credibility quantification of complex simulation systems

为了有效量化复杂仿真系统的可信度,提出一个全新的可信度量化指导框架,建立了适合复杂仿真系统的可信度评估指标体系,并针对复杂仿真系统可信度量化主观性和不确定性比较强的特点给出可信度量化途径:首先使用模糊集理论获取底层指标的评估意见,其次使用粗集理论处理评估意见的不一致并对其进行有意义的简化,最后使用证据理论合并评估意见和评估指标.实践证明了该量化方法的有效性.

In order to effectively quantify credibility of complex simulation systems, a new guiding framework of credibility quantification is presented. An index system of credibility evaluation suitable for complex simulation systems is given. And with a view to subjectivity and uncertainty, an approach to credibility quantification is presented： acquiring evaluation opinions for bottom indices based on fuzzy set, dealing with the inconsistency of evaluation opinions and simplifying them using rough set, and synthesizing evaluation opinions and evaluation indices in terms of evidence theory. Practice proves that this quantification method is effective.