一种准确通用的台风路径预报模式

One kind of accurate and general forecasting mode of typhoon track

应用天气学理论,对台风云图的晴空区轴线制约台风移动的规律进行物理解释。根据台风云团与晴空区之间存在的干、湿梯度力和推动台风前进的惯性力的互相关系,建立台风移向预报方程和轨迹预报方程,分析论证了台风移向变化的物理过程,把影响台风移动的复杂因子转化为单一的预报因子。

The restriction of the axes of clear sky regions in the typhoon cloud atlas to the movement of typhoon has been explained physically, with the usage of synoptic principles. The forecast equations for the movement and track of typhoon has been deduced, using the relationship between the dry or wet gradient forcing, which exist between the cloud atlas and clear sky regions, and the inertial forcing which promote the movement of typhoon has also been demonstrated totally. Thus a single parameter is used in the prediction of the movement of typhoon instead of the several complex ones.