预测误差的辨证思考—现实与理论的差距导致的背逆

The Dialectic Thinking on Forecasting Error

预测误差的辨证思考—现实与理论的差距导致的背逆欧阳进孙议政ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｅａｕｔｈｏｒｍａｉｎｔａｉｎｓｔｈａｔｔｈｅｒｅｅｘｉｓｔｍｕｔｕａｌｅｆｅｃｔｓａｍｏｎｇｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔ，ｐｒａｃｔｉｃｅａｎｄｆｕｔｕｒｅ．Ｔｈｉｓｍｕｔｕａｌｅｆ...

Abstract The author maintains that there exist mutual effects among forecast,practice and future. This mutual effects leads to difference between real forecast error(that is the disparity between results of economic operation without forecast and the predicted results of economy) and observed predicted error. The difference make the observed predicted error cannot reflects the real precision of economic forecast in many cases. Thus cannot be used as criteria to appraise whether a economic forecast is failure or not.