广东省风速极值I型分布参数估计方法的比较

Comparison of Estimation of Wind Speed Extreme-I Distribution Parameters in Guangdong Province

利用广东省86个气象站1951—2003年的年最大风速序列资料,应用极值I型分布函数对各站的年极值风速进行了概率计算,计算过程中极值I型分布函数分别采用了3种参数估计方法矩法、耿贝尔法和极大似然法,结合3种表征参数估计优良性的指标,对不同的参数估计方法进行了比较,结果表明大多数情况下采用耿贝尔法时拟合效果最好,即使在矩法或极大似然法为优的情况下,其拟合优良性指标与耿贝尔法也较为接近。

On the basis of the series of annual maximum wind velocity at 86 national weather stations in Guangdong Province from 1951 to 2003, the retum periods of annual maximum wind velocity of every station are calculated with the function of extreme-Ⅰ using three methods of estimation of parameters, i.e. , squares method, Gumbel＇ s method and the method of maximum likelihood. The fitting results show that Gumbel＇s method is the best in most cases, even in the case that the squares method or the method of maximum likelihood seems better and its choiceness index is closer to that of the best method.