应用灰色系统理论预测中国高等教育生源未来走势

Practical Application of GM Model in Potential Problems of the Source College Candidates in China

回顾了中国高等教育的发展历程,通过建立灰色系统模型预测模型,从高等教育发展对学生的需求和高中教育对学生的供给两个方面进行预测分析,阐述了普通高校继续实行扩招可能引发的潜在生源危机,并就此提出了几点建议。

With a brief review of the development of China＇s college education, based on a GM model, the writer made a forecast analysis in the college demand on students which will be supplied by high schools, so that it could demonstrate the pptential peoblems of increasing enrollment of tertiary schools in China. Meanwhile, the writer gave some suggestion on this point.