心理预期对我国城镇居民消费支出影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Psychological and Expected Factors upon the Consumption Expenditure of Our City & Town Residents

四大消费理论在我国适用性的比较研究结果表明:生命周期假说更适合作为研究当前我国城镇居民消费支出的理论参考,以此理论为基础,加入心理和预期变量,对我国城镇居民消费函数进行进一步实证比较。并利用加入心理预期变量后的消费函数对当前城镇居民消费支出的变动情况进行解释。在今后消费政策制定中,应注意关注城镇居民的心理和预期因素,引导消费合理增长和经济持续发展。

The comparative research results of the theories＂in China show that life cycle hypothesis application of the ＂four well-known consumption is more appropriate for the study of our current city ＆ town resident consumption expenditure. Based on this theory, the paper gives a further analysis of our city ＆ town resident consumption functions upon a thorough consideration of psychological and expected variables. It also presents city ＆ town resident consumption expenditure after a variables. According to the author, an explanation of the change of the current consideration of psychological and expected we should pay great attention to city ＆ town resident psychological and expected factors so as to guide a reasonable consumption growth and a sustainable economic development when we make consumption policy decisions in the future.