我国生态效率指标设计及其应用

Eco-efficiency Indicators for China and Their Applications

尝试借鉴德国环境经济账户中的生态效率指标，并根据我国的实际情况，构建适合度量我国循环经济发展的生态效率指标。然后应用构建的生态效率指标分析我国1990～2005年生态效率的历史趋势，发现我国1990--2005年各种自然输入要素的生态效率都呈现增长的态势，但是增长的速度都仅仅使自然输入要素与经济产出呈现出不同程度的弱脱钩。根据生态效率的历史趋势预测2020年我国可能的资源消耗和污染排放，发现如果雏持目前经济增长模式，尽管到2020年我国完全可以实现经济发展比2000年翻两番的战略目标，但是同期能源消耗量、原材料消耗量和二氧化硫排放量也都将超过翻一番，能源消耗量甚至接近翻两番，而废水排放量也几乎翻一番。

This paper attempts to construct a set of eco - efficiency indicators in line with Chinese actual conditions for the measurement of circular economy development in China, according to the eeo - efficiency indicators in German environmental economic accounting, next ,it applies the set of eeo - efficiency indicators for China in the analysis of the trend of eco - efficiency of its economy form 1990 to 2005, revealing that the eeo - efficiency of every natural input factor has shown a growing trend while it allows only a weak delinking between natural input fctors and GDP to some degree. Then, it projects resource consumptions and emissions in 2020 according to the trend of the eeo - efficiency and discovers that although China will succeed in achieving its strategic goal of economic growth that GDP in 2020 will be two doubles of that in 2000,at the same time, its energy consumption, raw material demand and sulfur dioxide emission will be more than one double, waste water emission will approach one double and even energy consumption will approach two doubles if China keeps on its economic growth model.