粮食产量主要影响因素实证分析及政策选择

An Empirical Study of the Major Factors Influencing Grain Outputs and the Policy Choices

从1978～2003年的统计数据来看,粮食播种面积、单位面积产量、政府收购价、化肥施用量、受灾面积等是影响我国粮食产量的主要因素,而其中政府收购价是最根本的影响因素。因此,提高粮食产量的根本政策措施就是实行粮食的价格保护,同时还要实行其他政策措施如保护耕地面积、提高抗灾能力、降低化肥价格、掌拉农业生产资料价格、加大科技投入等。

The statistics indicated that from 1978 to 2003, grain sown areas, unit area outputs, govemrnent＇s purchasing prices, volumes of chemical fertilizers＇ use, and stricken areas constituted the major factors influencing grain outputs in China, among which government＇s purchasing prices were the most fundamental one. Therefore, in order to improve grain outputs, it is essential to protect grain prices and to carry out other pohcies and eountermeasures, such as protection of cultivated areas, improvement of fighting natural calamities, decreasing the prices of farming production means （ e.g. the chemical fertilizers）, and enhancing scientific and technological inputs.