小子样条件下基于指数退化轨道的性能可靠性评定

Performance Reliability Evaluation Based on Exponential Degradation Model on Condition of Small Sampling

结合航空航天领域高可靠、长寿命产品试验小子样的特点，运用性能退化可靠性理论与Bayes方法，对系统可靠性的统计推断方法进行了研究。首先对基于Bayes方法的性能退化轨道参数的计算模型进行研究，然后结合随机变量函数的分布计算，推导出系统可靠性后验估计和置信下限估计的计算公式；在理论推导的基础上，结合工程实例说明该方法的有效性。

In this paper, on condition of the characteristic that high-reliability and long-life aerospace product＇s field test is small sampling, the reliability evaluation method based on Bayesian method and performance degradation theory is built. Firstly, in the paper the performance degradation parameter＇s calculation model based on Bayes method is present, and the parameter＇s posterior distribution is carried out. Then by the calculation of distribution for the random variable＇s function, the point and low confidence calculation formula for reliability evaluation are presented. Specially, an example is given to show the validity of this method.