基于数值产品的乡镇天气预报方法研究与应用

Application of villages and towns weather forecast method based on numerical products

通过对数值预报模式产品的对比分析,应用MM5和T213数值模式产品,对乡镇天气预报的降水和温度预报进行研究。将2005年8—10月模式预报结果分别进行效果检验和分析,得到主客观预报订正规律,可以有效地提高乡镇天气预报准确率,由此形成基于数值模式预报产品的乡镇天气预报方法。

According to analysis and comparison of NWP products, precipitation and temperature forecasts of villages and towns weather forecast were analyzed with MM5 and T213 numerical forecasting pattern products. The pattern forecast results from August to October in 2005 were tested and analyzed, and the subjective and objective revisal rules were obtained, which could improve the accurate rate of villages and towns forecast effectively. And the villages and towns weather forecast method could be formed based on numerical pattern forecast products.