论我国工业化与城市化的双重演进——基于劳动力转移理论的实证分析

On Dual Evolution of Industrialization and Urbanization in China——Positive Analysis Based on the Labor Transfer Theory

“两产业三部门”的双重演进模型从劳动力转移的视角揭示了我国工业化与城市化相互促进、相互制约的双重互动关系。理论与实证分析还表明,扩展城市(镇)非农部门、发挥其集聚效应是实现我国工业化与城市化双重演进的前提条件。但在我国目前城乡二元体制下,劳动力的产业转移与区域转移在一定程度上存在矛盾性,工业化与城市化可能难以同时两全。为提高工业化与城市化水平,应进一步深化户籍管理制度改革,统筹城乡就业,建立城乡一体化劳动力市场。

The dual evolution model of ＂three sections and two industries＂ indicates the dual interaction relation between industrialization and urbanization in China from labor transfer. The theoretical and positive analysis also states that expanding the urban nonagricultural sector to develop its gathering effect is a premise that carries out the dual evolution of industrialization and urbanization in China;under the dual rural - urban system,the industrializa- tion and the urbanization are hard to be realized at the same time to some extent because of the contradiction between the industrial transfer and the regional transfer of labor; in order to promote industrialization and urbanization, China should speed up the household register management system reform further and take the rural and urban employment as a whole for establishing the rural -urban integrated labor market.