基于贝叶斯方法的时变可靠度分析

Analysis of time-dependent reliability by using Bayesian approach

针对现役钢筋混凝土桥梁时变可靠度分析的现状,首先根据主观经验信息确定了一个抗力统计参数退化模型,然后结合结构实际检测信息,运用贝叶斯方法综合这两类信息,并进行了推断,从而对模型参数进行了更新,并利用更新后的参数对混凝土模型和钢筋锈蚀模型进行了修正,最后结合已有的荷载效应分析理论,计算时变可靠度,给出了一个计算实例.

Time-dependent reliability of in-service reinforced concrete bridge was analyzed. An attenuation model of resisting force statistic parameters is proposed, based on epistemic information from the empirical formula. Two types of the information, the epistemic information and the natural information from the practical structural inspection, were synthesized by Bayesian approach and inferred to update the parameters for the model. The concrete model and reinforced bar rust-eaten model were modified by the updated parameters. On the basis of load effect analysis theories, the time-dependent reliability of a practical project was computed.