镜泊湖春汛流量预测及分析

Forecast and analysis of water rate in spring flood period in Jingpohu lake

应用数值分析中的数据拟合法和迭代法进行数据计算和分析,通过对冬季各月降雪量的分析,并对4月份流量进行定量预报,结合其它预报因子对预报流量进行修正。该方法主要是对牡丹江流域春讯流量进行定量预报,弥补以前定性预报方法错误率高、精度低、可靠性不高的缺点。

Using data fitting method and iterative method of numerical analysis to calculate and analyze data, the water rate on April is forecasted quantificationally by analyzing snowfall of every month in winter, which is amended by combining others forecast factors. The method is mainly used to forecast quatificationally the spring flood period flow in Mudanjiang area, which has more precious and reliable than the former method does.