基于类型思维的雇佣决策者预期及偏差

Seeing Employer′s Expectation and Bias from Categorized Thinking

雇佣决策者在决定是否继续聘用雇员时,需对雇员过去业绩作出考核与评判,基于此对雇员的未来业绩加以预期,在这一过程中,雇佣决策者存在着类型思维。雇佣决策者对雇员加以认知,并与不同类型相匹配,在此基础上预期类型未来业绩状况。首先对比了贝叶斯思维者类型预期与类型思维者类型预期,在此基础之上,论述雇佣决策者的两种预期偏差:反应不足预期偏差和反应过度预期偏差。

Deciding whether to continue to hire an employee, an employer has to estimate the employee＇s achievement and expect the employee＇s future achievement based on the employee＇s had done. During the process, the employer has a categorized thinking to have the employees classified for future achievement. On the basis of the contrast between the Bayesian employers and the categorized thinking employers, we discussed the two expected bias： under-reaction and over-reaction.