乘数法估计四川乐山市中区吸毒人群基数研究

STUDY ON ESTIMATION OF THE POPULATION SIZE OF DRUG USERS IN SHIZHONG DISTRICT OF LESHAN CITY,SICHUAN PROVINCE:MULTIPLIER METHODS

目的:使用乘数法估计乐山市中区籍现有吸毒人群基数。方法:获得当地强戒所和自愿咨询检测门诊2003年5月31-2004年5月31日收戒或咨询人数r,问卷调查获乘数1/p,N=r/p计算估计数,定性和定量研究结合以解释估计结果。结果:r=507/511人,271份问卷获自称戒毒比例23.99%/4.17、咨询比例32.47%/3.08,估计数2114/1574人。23.99%和核对比例23.25%比较,χ2=0.0952,P=0.7576;一致性检验,k=0.5705,95%可信区间[0.4547,0.6862];灵敏度68.25%和特异度89.42%。与2002年自称戒毒比例(25.54%)比较,χ2=0.1623,P>0.05。公安部门登记、乘数法计算的总吸毒率为0.20%、0.39%和0.29%,三者多重比较,χ2为185.46、320.27、83.85和12.41,均P<0.01。结论:强戒所和VCT门诊为依托机构进行乘数法估计是可行的;自称戒毒比例稳定为24%,VCT比例33%,可满足估计,但需关注戒毒假阴性问题;至2004年7月26日目标人群估计数1574-2114人,是公安部门同期现有吸毒登记数的1.5-2倍。

Objective： To estimate the population size of active drug users with multipliermethods in Shizhong District of Leshan City, Sichuan Province. Methods ： Data （r） were collected in the local compulsory drug detoxification center and the voluntary consulting clinics from May 31,2003 to May 31,2004 ; and the multiplication factors （1/p） were calculated based on 271 drug users epidemiological survey on targeted population （N）. N = r/p. Moreover, qualitative study and quantitative study were combined together to interpret the study results. Results ： r = 507/511 persons, the self - reported visiting rate and multiplier factor were 23.99%/4. 17 and 32. 47% /3.08. So the estimates of active drug users were 2114/1574. Compared 23.99% with 23.25% from the local compulsory drug detoxification center by McNema＇ s test and by consistency test,the results showed ： X^2 = 0. 0952, P = 0. 7576 ; k = 0. 5705, 95%CI = [0. 4547, 0. 6862]. Se =68.25% ,Sp =89. 42%. The result between 23.99% and 25.54% from a survey in 2002 by X^2 -test indicated： X^2 =0. 1623, P 〉0. 05. The prevalence of the local active drug users were 0. 20% , 0. 39% and 0. 29% , which were calculated by using three different kinds of estimation methods,respectively. The results between muhisample rate by multiple comparison revealed： X^2 = 185.46,320. 27,83.85 and 12. 41, P 〈 0. 01. Conclusion： Using multiplier methods for estimating the population size of active drug users, it is feasible to select compulsory drug detoxification centers and voluntary consulting clinics as targeted organizations where genuine and integrated individual information can be provided. The self-reported visiting rate to drug detoxification centers is 24%, which is steady and can meet the need in population estimation. But we should pay close attention to false - negative and quality control. The visiting rate to voluntary consulting clinics is 33%. The range of population size of active drug users was 1574 -2114 until July 26,2004 in Shizhoong District, Leshan City, which is 1.5 -2 times of the registered number provided by public security departments during the same period.