摘要
采用特尔菲法,选择4个一级因子和14个二级因子,建立洪灾风险评价等级指标体系。利用层次分析法,根据对同一层元素相对重要性比较,决定各指标权重。应用模糊综合评判方法,将福建省67个县(市)分为高风险区、次高风险区、中度风险区、低风险区4个等级。评价结果可为防灾减灾提供科学依据。
The flood risk assessment grading systems composed of 4 first-grade factors and 14 second-grade factors are established based on Delphi method. Using analytical hierarchy process method, the weights of each factor is determined after compared with another factor in the same grade. Calculated by the model of Fuzzy synthetic evaluation, the grade of flood risk assessment is classified into serious, hypo-serious, moderate and gentle flood risk in Fujian province. These assessment results will provide a scientific basis for flood disaster prevention and reduction.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2007年第1期1-5,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(05BJY075)
福建省自然科学基金计划资助项目(2006J0127)
关键词
洪灾风险评价
模糊综合评判
层次分析法
特尔菲法
福建
flood risk assessment
fuzzy comprehensive assessment
analytical hierarchy process
Delphi method
Fujian
