河北省耕地压力动态分析与预测

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Cropland Pressure in Hebei Province

本文分析了河北省自改革开放以来耕地压力指数的变化特点,对未来15年耕地压力指数进行了预测,提出减轻耕地压力的措施。研究结果显示:1978年以来,虽然河北省耕地数量持续减少,人口不断增加,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,粮食产量和人均占有量却在增加,耕地压力指数呈现降低的趋势。未来15年耕地压力指数仍较大,但将进一步降低。据此提出,依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率,是减轻耕地压力、保证食物安全的根本途径。

This research studied the changing features of the pressure index of cropland in Hebei Province since 1978, and made a prediction of the pressure index of cropland in the coming 15 years. It also put forth some countermeasures for easing cropland pressure. The result showed that since 1978 the total output and the quantity per capita of grain had been increasing due to the increase of production per unit of cropland, although the cropland had been decreasing and the population increasing. Hence the pressure index of cropland had trended to decrease. In the coming 15 years, the pressure of cropland would be decreased further, although remained at a relative high level. Thus, the most important way for grain security and for relaxing the cropland pressure was to increase investment of capital and advanced technologies so as to incessantly promote production per unit of cropland.