基于LEAP的中国电力行业CO_2排放情景分析

CO_2 emission scenario analysis for China’s electricity sector based on LEAP software

为评估中国电力行业CO2减排潜力,建立了LEAPChina模型,应用自底向上的方法模拟分析了3种不同政策情景下行业2000—2030年的CO2排放情况。通过评估计算CO2减排成本及减排贡献率识别了行业重点减排技术。结果表明:如果当前政策情景中的政策措施得到有效实施,相对基准情景可实现年均CO2减排1.15亿t。若欲进一步提高减排效果,则需投入更高成本。以2020年为例,投入669.3亿元可增加CO2减排大约为1.25亿t。中国电力行业减排潜力能否实现取决于技术进步投资和措施执行力度。

To assess the CO2 reduction potentials for China＇s electricity sector, a bottom-up LEAPChina model was developed to generate three different sectoral CO2 emission scenarios from 2000 to 2030. Priority reduction technologies are identified through comparisons of reduction contributions and marginal abatement cost information for various feasible technologies. The study shows that an average emission abatement of 115 Mt CO2 per year can be realized compared to the baseline scenario if the measures in recent policy initiatives are well implemented. However, the cost will rise as the emission abatement increases. In 2020, an investment of RMB 66.93 billion yuan can yield an abatement increase of approximately 125 Mt CO2. Realization of China＇s electricity sector＇s abatement potential depends on investments in advanced technologies and effective implementation of reduction policies.