论货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的有效性

On the Validity of the Money Supply as Intermediate Goal of Monetary Policy in China

本文把理论分析与实证分析相结合,运用协整检验、VEC模型和方差分解方法分析了1996年以来我国货币供应量、物价和产出的季度时间序列,论证了货币供应量与物价、产出间具有较强的相关性。从货币供应量的构成分析,基础货币具有较强的可控性;货币乘数可控性较差,但对货币乘数可以利用ARMA模型进行较为准确的预测。由此,本文得出的结论是货币供应量具有较强的可控性,从而有理由认为,货币供应量作为我国货币政策的中介目标在现阶段仍然是有效的。

The paper demonstrates that the relativity between price, output and money supply is closer employing co—integrated theory,the VEC(Vector Error Correction)model and the variance decomposition method for analyzing quarterly data from 1996 to the third quarter of 2005.The analysis of monetary constitution indicates that the foundation currency is strongly controllable and the currency multiplier isn't controllable.But the currency multiplier can be well and truly forecasted by the ARMA model,thus it's strongly predictable.Consequently,the author draws the conclusion that money supply is strongly controllable.Hereto,it's just valid that money supply as intermediate goal at present in China.