中美危机管理的基本概念、原则与变量

Sino-U.S. Crisis Management: Concepts, Principles, and Variables

开展中美安全危机管理研究,须将理论与实际紧密结合,对两国危机管理的基本概念(包括危机的定义、危机的种类和危机管理的作用)、危机管理的原则及危机管理的关键变量进行深入探讨。其中,对关键变量的研究尤为重要,它涉及两国精英的认识与信念、国内政治与公众舆论、决策机制与程序、信息情报接受与处理、国际环境以及决策者个人性格等诸多方面。加强对这些问题的研究,对于增进中美相互理解和加强两国间的危机管理具有重要的现实意义。

To conduct joint research on Sino-U.S. security crisis management, we should combine theory with practice and delve into the basic concepts of crisis-management of each country (including their respective definitions of crisis, classifications of crises, and role of crisis management), as well as the basic principles and key variables. Among these, the key variables, which include elite perceptions and beliefs, domestic politics and public opinion, decision-making structure and processes, the reception and processing of information and intelligence, the international environment, and idiosyncratic or special features, etc., are the most important. It is important to strengthen research and exchanges on these topics so as to promote Sino-U.S. crisis management and to deepen our mutual understanding.