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苯接触评估:BAYES统计学的应用研究

Application of Bayesian Statistics in Benzene Exposure Assessment
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摘要 [目的]用BAYES统计学方法估算车间空气中挥发性气体的区域浓度并检验其正确性。[方法]以某橡胶厂车间空气中苯浓度的历史监测资料为基础,结合专家主观概率及物理模型,进行BAYES统计推断,估算各岗位的区域浓度,并以现场测定数据对评估结果进行检验。[结果]估算的区域浓度最高的3个岗位为打浆、夹布机成型、搪浆;有7个岗位的区域浓度估算结果与8个岗位的现场采样结果无明显差别,而历史测量资料只有4个岗位的估算结果与现场采样结果无差别。[结论]BAYES统计学方法能降低变异,更有效地评估车间空气中挥发性有机物的区域浓度水平。 [ Objective ] To assess the area concentrations of volatile organic vapor in workshops with Bayesian statistics and check them with field measurements. [ Methods ] On the basis of historical area benzene concentrations in a rubber factory, Bayesian Statistics was used associating with expertise and physical model to estimate the area concentrations of different work stations. The results were tested with the field measurements, [ Results ] The three working stations with the highest assessed levels were slurry-making, cloth-lining-assembling and slurry-applying. Their were 7 work stations where no significant difference was found between concetrations estimating with the Bayesian statistics and those of field measurements, whereas compared between historical and field measurement, there were only 4. [ Conclusion ] Area concentrations of volatile organic vapor assessed by Bayesian Statistics were closer to the field measurements than historical data.
作者 何永华 傅华
出处 《环境与职业医学》 CAS 北大核心 2007年第1期16-20,共5页 Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine
关键词 应用 接触评估 BAYES统计学 application exposure assessment Bayesian Statistics benzene
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参考文献11

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