论人民币参考一篮子货币汇率制度

On RMB Exchange Rate Regime in Reference to a Basket of Currencies

人民币汇率制度改革的长期目标应是浮动汇率制度,但鉴于当前我国金融市场、微观经济主体和金融监管等方面存在的问题,我国选择了较为缓和的参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。与人民币钉住美元汇率制度和人民币钉住一篮子货币汇率制度相比,人民币参考一篮子货币汇率制度下的汇率形成机制更趋市场化。人民币参考一篮子货币汇率制度不仅有助于稳定人民币实际有效汇率,促进我国国际贸易和国际投资的健康发展,而且可以发挥人民币汇率在资源配置中的积极作用,增强我国货币政策的独立性。同时,人民币参考一篮子货币汇率制度也增加了市场预期的不确定性。

The long - term objective of RMB exchange rate regime reform should be a floating exchange rate regime. But considering the problems with our financial market, microeconomic participants and financial supervision, our country has finally chosen a regulated, managed floating exchange rate regime in reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism under this system is more market-oriented compared with the dollar- peg or the basket - peg. This system is not only helpful to stabilize the real effective exchange rate of RMB and to promote the sound development of our Country＇s international trade and investments, it can also take advantage of the positive role of RMB exchange rate in resources allocation to strengthen our country＇s monetary policy independence. Besides its positive role, the ＂reference to a basket of currencies＂ RMB exchange regime enhances the uncertainty of market expectation.