中国东天山北坡40年来水热组合变化与古气候的关系

Preliminary Study on the Relationship between the Change of Water-heat Combination in Recent 40 Years and the Paleoclimate in the East Part of Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains

利用东天山北坡山区和平原共6个气象站40年来的降水量及气温记录,对各季、年的水热组合状况及其变化进行了统计分析,并与新疆5 000 aB P(中晚全新世)以来的水热组合主要规律进行了对比讨论。得到的基本结论为:(1)从变化趋势看,除1987年相对暖湿(平原和秋冬两季表现尤其明显)外,40年来其它时段基本以暖干气候为主,也有冷湿气候出现;(2)该结果与新疆历史时期百年尺度的水热组合变化规律存在一定的差异;(3)在一定程度上体现了中晚全新世以来,新疆气候以冷湿、暖干为主的水热组合规律只能代表百年尺度的变化,而年际尺度的变化规律还需要更多更深入地研究。

This paper mainly analyzed the long-term data （1961- 2001） of the seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation observed by 6 meteorological stations in recent 40 years based on the statistical methods in east of northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and contrastively discussed it and the water-heat rule since 5000a. BP in Xinjiang. The results are as follows： （1） From the change trend, it dominated by warm-dry climate with rare cold-wet climate except the relative warm-dry climate since 1987 （especially in region of no relief and in autumn or winter） during recent 40 years; （2）This result was different to the water-heat rule of a century scale during history period in Xinjiang. （3） The water-heat rule dominated by cold-wet and warm-dry climate during mid-late Holocene embodied only the rule of a century scale, on the other hand, the water-heat rule of annual scale needed more embedded researches.