外商直接投资对农业进出口贸易的影响——基于1983--2004年中国数据的协整分析

The Effect of FDI on Trade in Agricultural Sectors:Co-integration Test Based on China Data from 1983 to 2004

针对我国当前进出口贸易发展迅速而农业贸易不容乐观的现实，文章从农业部门外商直接投资对农业进出口贸易的影响出发，通过采用1983-2004年的经济数据，对二者的关系进行了协整检验和格兰杰检验。结果发现，农业部门吸引外商直接投资和农业进出口贸易之间存在稳定的相关关系，即外商直接投资是引起农业进出口贸易的原因之一。我国为此应该采取相关对策，促进农业部门成为我国吸引外商直接投资的新领域。

In view of the discrepancy between China＇s rapidly growing international trade and its sluggish agricultural trade, this article carries out co-integration test and Granger test employing statistical data from 1983 to 2004 from a new angle of the relationship between agricultural FDI and export-import trade. The results indicate that there exists a stable long-run correlation between FDI and international trade in agricultural sectors. The findings further verify that FDI in agricultural sectors is one of the determinants of agricultural trade whereas agricultural trade bears no effect on FDI inflows into the agricultural sectors.