安达曼弧与缅甸、云南强震相关性研究

Relativity Study between the Andaman Arc and the Strong Earthquakes in Myanmar and Yunnan, China

研究区包括安达曼弧、缅甸平原和云南地区三个部分。对安达曼弧7级以上地震与缅甸、云南7级和6.8级地震的群体与个体的相关特征进行了研究,发现安达曼弧、缅甸平原M≥7.0地震与云南M≥6.8地震在群体上有一定相关性,但并非一一相关。云南有4个地震活跃期,但安达曼弧与缅甸平原却只有3个,缺失第3活跃期。研究区强震活动从板缘向板内逐渐减弱,三个地区最大震级分别为8.7级、7.8级和7.7级。安达曼弧与缅甸、云南7级地震的个体相关概率分别为33%和27%,平均30%左右,缅甸与云南的个体相关概率为43%。最后对云南的地震趋势进行了预测。

The relative characteristics of the swarms and individuals among the M≥7 earthquakes in the Andaman Arc, the M≥7 ones in Myanmar Plain and the M≥6.8 ones in Yunnan, China, have been studied respectively. The results show that they have swarm relativity but not all are correlative. There are 4 seismic active periods in Yunnan, but only 3 in Andaman Arc and Myanmar, lacking of the third active period. The activity of strong earthquakes becomes weaker from the plate margin to the inside of the plate. The maximum magnitudes in the three areas are M8.7, M 7.8 and M 7. 7 respectively. The individual relativity ratio of the M≥7 earthquakes is 33% （Andaman-Myanmar）, 27% （Andaman-Yunnan）, and43% （Myanmar-Yunnan）. Based on the study result, the earthquake tendency in Yunnan has been predicted.