海南与台湾两省铁路交通相似度研究

Research on Similarity of Railway Transportation between Hainan and Taiwan Province

研究目的:通过相似度理论体系研究,分析两省经济、交通特征现状及未来的相似度,以期借鉴台湾岛综合交通尤其是铁路交通的建设经验,合理地预测客货运量,论证海南东环铁路建设的必要性和可行性。研究方法:采用相似度理论体系,运用系统分析技术,由面到点,对不同子系统和层次之间逐步归纳、总结。研究结论:通过分析,目前两省交通特征相似度仅为0.4,随着环岛铁路的形成,两省2020年交通特征相似度达0.805,显示海南形成环岛铁路是提高交通综合服务水平的关键。因此建设海南环岛铁路是十分必要的。

Research purposes： Through doing research on theory system of similarity, the analysis is made for the characteristics and future similarities of economy and transportation between Hainan and Taiwan for the purposes of learning the construction experiences of integrated transportation in Taiwan, especially railway transportation, predicting the volumes of freight and passenger traffic rationally, and verifying the necessity and feasibility of construction of Eastern Loop Railway in Hainan. Research methods：The summary is made for the different subsystem and different levels of transportations from general to concrete by adopting theory system of similarity and systematic analysis technology. Research conclusions：According to the analysis, now the transportation similarity between Hainan and Taiwan is only 0.4, but that will be 0.805 after island - loop railway being formed. It shows the formation of island - loop railway is the key point to improve the overall service level of transportation, so it is very necessary to build island - loop railway.