腐败水平与反腐措施的随机动态模型分析

CORRUPTION LEVEL AND ANTI-CORRUPTION MEASURES:A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC MODEL

腐败经济理论主要从微观和宏观两个层面展开.在现有文献中,有关腐败的规模大小、衡量指标、变动状况、对社会经济的影响等宏观层面的研究较多,对腐败影响因素的分析则相对较少,且分析模型多为静态或确定性动态模型.而腐败问题研究的根本目的是为了反腐,对影响腐败因素的正确认识是制定切实有效反腐措施的基本前提.为此,本文建立了一个关于腐败水平的随机动态模型,分析了腐败水平的影响因素,并根据模型中参数变量对腐败水平影响的分析给出了相应的反腐措施.本文认为,个体为腐败行为所承受的精神压力程度不同时,反腐所采取的措施特别是提高政府开支,所产生的反腐效果是很不一样的,但加强法制惩罚力度的措施总是最有效的.

Corruption economics conducts its analysis in both framework. Most of the existing literature on corruption economy focus on macroeconomic issues, such as corruption size, corruption index, corruption states, and corruption＇ s implications of society and economy development, but fewer pay more attention to the determinants of corruption level. As the same time, their works are almost based on static or deterministic dynamic models. However, the essential aim of the study on corruption economy is to curb individuals＇ corruption behavior, and the analysis of corrupt deterministic factors is a basic condition to make efficient anti-corruption policies. Therefore, this paper sets up a stochastic dynamic model to investigates the relationship between corruption level and anticorruption measures. We show that the effects of anti-corruption measures are very different when the degree of individual＇ s spiritual pressure, stemming from morality condemns and deterrences from laws or rules, are different, especially for reducing public expenditure. Moreover, it is most efficient to strengthen law punishment among all anti-corruption measures.