复杂系统动态可靠性建模及其数值仿真研究

Research on dynamic reliability modeling of complicated system and its numerical simulation

分析传统可靠性建模理论存在的缺陷,提出复杂系统动态可靠性求解的可行方法。以系统结构、功能及故障分析为基础,建立系统可靠性随机Petri网模型,得到系统的状态空间及可能的故障状态,为动态可靠性数值仿真创造条件。以Petri网模型为基础,基于蒙特卡洛仿真求解系统动态可靠性指标,通过仿真,分析影响系统可靠性的关键因素。并以某城市排污液压系统为例,验证方法的有效性。

The defects existed in the traditional theory of reliability modeling were analyzed, and the feasible method was put forward for the solution of dynamic reliability of complicated system. Taking the structure and function of the system and failure analysis as the foundation, the random Petri net model of system reliability was established. The status space of system and the possible failure state were obtained, thus created conditions for numerical simulation of dynamic reliability. With the Petri net model as a base, basing on the systematic dynamic reliability target of Monte Carlo simulative solution and by means of simulation the key factors that affect the reliability of system were analyzed. Taking the hydraulic pressure system of pollutants emission of certain city as an example, the effectiveness of this method was verified.