修正的GM模型在塔里木盆地石油产量预测中的应用

Application of the improved GM Model to oil production forecasting of Tarim Basin

影响塔里木盆地石油产量的因素是多方面的,这些参数与产量之间具有非线性关系,采用通常的数学方法很难对其进行分析,鉴于此,本文利用灰关联度对塔里木盆地油气产量的主要影响因素进行分析,从中选择关联度较大的因素作为影响元,用修正的灰色GM(1,N)模型来求解这种非线性关系,对未来几年塔里木盆地的石油产量进行了定性和定量的预测,取得了较好的效果。

There are various factors that affect the oil production in Tarim Basin. A nonlinear relationship exists between parameters and oil production, which is difficult to analyze using common mathematic method. This paper researches on the main factors that affect oil output with grey related degree, selecting the factors with larger degree of association as influential elements, and the nonlinear relationship is calculated based on an improved GM （ 1, N） Model. The oil output of Tarim Basin in the next several years has been forecasted qualitatively and quantitatively with this model, which shows better results.