小汽车拥有发展规律及其应用研究

Research on the Law and Its Application of Car-hold Growing

随我国各大、中城市小汽车拥有量增长迅速,科学地掌握小汽车拥有发展规律,并结合规律提出合理的小汽车发展政策与引导措施,已显得颇为重要。本研究突破了前人利用人均GDP(GNP)进行单因素分析的局限,结合我国小汽车发展特点,以深圳为背景,讨论了居民收入水平、车辆购买成本、车辆利用成本等因素对小汽车拥有发展的影响,提出了车辆全成本、车辆购买力因子等概念,并建立了数学模型。较为科学地揭示了目前我国小汽车拥有发展规律,模型可作为政策依据及校验手段。研究还结合模型对小汽车发展调控政策进行了初步探讨。作为例证,作者还利用模型比较了不作政策调整及进行停车收费调节两种情况下的小汽车拥有发展趋势,对停车收费政策的效果进行了检验。

Recently, more and more families hold their own cars in city. This brings a great challenge to urban traffic. To discover the law of car-hold growing, and to make policies to adjusting car-hold growing becomes very important than anytime before. Based on the characteristic of car-hold growing in our country and data of Shenzhen city, some influence factors such as inhabitants＇ income, car price, daily expenditures of holding a car, total car cost, and purchasing ability are discussed, amathematicalmodel is concluded. The model can be used to examine the policies, in addition, an initial probe to adjusting car-hold growing is made. The policy of parking charge adjusting is examined by the model in the examples of this paper.