奥运会径赛成绩定量预测

Quantitatively Predicting the Achievement of Track Events in Olympic Games

对历届奥运会男女径赛不同项目的比赛成绩t与比赛距离S及比赛届次N进行统计分析,以回归分析法建立了t-N二者关系模型及t-N-S三者关系模型,可用于分析与预测各届次的比赛成绩,提出了基于近期奥运会最高纪录的各项径赛最好成绩t与径赛距离S的关系,可较准确预测近期未来奥运各项径赛是否可破纪录的情况。根据这一预测,第29届奥运会男女径赛将在100m、800m、1500m、5000m项目上有望提高或打破奥运会纪录。

We applied statistical analysis methods among match achievement t, match distance S and match time N for different track events of men or women in all previous Olympic Games. Using regression analysis, we built t-N and t-N-S models that have application in analyzing and predicting match achievement of each game. Particularly, it was comparatively accurate to forecast whether records of all kinds of track events in Olympic Games would be broken in the next games based on the relationship between match distance S and match achievement t. According to the prediction, the Olympic records beth male and female athletes in track events are expected to improve or break in 100-meter, 800-meter, 1500-meter and 5000-meter races in 29th Olympic Games.