浅析中国人口红利及其兑现途径

Brief Analysis of Chinese Demographic Dividend and Its Cashing Approach

本文介绍了人口红利的概念及其形成过程,并通过对中国人口出生率、死亡率及人口负担系数变化的分析,说明人口转变使中国从20世纪90年代开始享受人口红利,揭示了人口红利即将消失的趋势;通过分析我国自进入人口红利期以来的人口红利兑现状况,提出要最大化地兑现余下不多的人口红利,将潜在的机遇转换为现实的经济增长和财富积累,需要实现就业充分、就业结构的优化和劳动生产率的提高。

This article introduces the concept and forming process of demographic dividend, and through the analysis of the change of Chinese population birthrate, the mortality and the population burden coefficient it shows the demographic transitions make China begin to enjoy the demographic dividend from the 1990s, revealing the tendency which the demographic dividend will disappear soon. Through analyzing the cashing condition of Chinese demographic dividend since the 1990s, it suggests that we need to realize the full employment, the optimization of employment structure and the enhancement of labor productivity, if we want to maximize the cashing of the little remsining demographic dividend, and transform the latent opportunity into the real economical growth and wealth accumulation.