拉普拉斯概率论的衰落

The Decline of the Laplacian Theory of Probability

作为概率论历史中一个重要发展阶段的拉普拉斯概率论在20世纪初期走到了它的尽头。从19世纪初开始的关于概率论在法律判决中应用的争论、柯西的“新数学”的兴起及其对最小二乘法的责难、对拉普拉斯概率论基础的批评以及公理化概率论的产生等四个方面的讨论,展示了拉普拉斯概率论衰落的历史轮廓。

This paper give an outline of the decline of Laplacian theory of probability by discussing five events in the end of 19th century and the early of 20th century： the argument against the application of probability theory to the domain of human decision, the development of the new mathematics of Cauchy, the argument on the basic concepts and theory of Laplacian probability and the birth of the axiomatic probability.