贸易开放度与通货膨胀:基于社会福利的分析框架

Openness and Inflation:Based on the Framework of Society Welfare

本文在开放经济和价格粘性的模型中,从货币冲击出发,研究贸易开放度与通货膨胀的影响关系,结果表明:未被预期到的扩张性货币冲击会形成通货膨胀缺口,通货膨胀缺口会带来社会福利的增加,政府可以从通货膨胀缺口获得收益。贸易开放度越高,政府从通货膨胀缺口所获得的收益越小,因此政府会采取紧缩的货币政策来降低通货膨胀率。用1978年-2003年中国的数据,通过协整和ECM模型分析发现贸易开放度与通货膨胀率在长期内呈负相关关系,并且贸易开放度是降低通货膨胀率的原因,因此维持协整关系的稳定有利于降低通货膨胀率。

This article investigates the relation between openness and inflation based on the models of open economy and sticky price. The conclusion is that an unexpected monetary expansion shock forms the surprise inflation, which will increase the social we]fare. Government win benefits from surprise inflation. In the economy with high openness, government benefits less from surprise inflation. This article employ the Chinese data from 1978 to 2003 to conduct co-integration test and analysis with ECM model, and find that openness and inflation is negatively related in long-run and openness is the Granger causality of inflation.