公司治理与财务困境预测

Corporate Governance and Financial Distress Prediction

本文在分别借助因子分析和非参数检验方法对公司财务指标和治理因素进行统计处理的基础上,构造并实证检验了用于预测我国上市公司财务困境的两大模型,即仅是包含财务信息与融合财务信息和公司治理因素的Logistic回归预测模型。实证结果表明,作为通过了非参数检验的公司治理因素之关键特征变量——第一大股东派出董事比例,不但与公司发生财务困境的概率之间呈现显著的负相关关系,而且能够显著提高包含该变量的预测模型的回判和预测准确率。因此,公司治理信息应当是利于预测我国上市公司是否可能发生财务困境的重要因素。

Statistically disposing corporate financial index and governance ingredient in virtue of factor analysis and nonparameter test respectively, the paper construct and empirically test two logistic regression models for predicting Chinese listed companies financial distress, i.e. model which just include financial information and model which syncretize financial information and corporate governance ingredient. Empirical results suggest that key characteristic variable of corporate governance ingredient, the percentage of director occupied by the first large shareholder, which pass non-parameter test, not only are prominent negatively related to firm financial distress probability, but also can remarkably improve backwards differentiate exact rate and predict exact rate of the model which include the variable. Thereby corporate governance information should be redound to predict if Chinese listed companies occur financial distress.