国家突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的思考和建议

ADVISEMENT AND SUGGESTION TO SCIENTIFIC PROBLEMS OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR PUBLIC INCIDENTS

突发公共事件的应急管理体系可视为一个开放的复杂巨系统,具有多主体、多因素、多尺度、多变性的特征,包含着丰富而深刻的复杂性科学问题。应急管理包括风险评估、监测监控、预测预警、决策指挥、救援处置、恢复重建等关键环节,并且广泛涉及紧急环境中人员/群的心理及行为。文中从突发公共事件若干典型案例的分析出发,基于国内外应急管理基础研究大跨度、多学科交叉融合的特点,试图凝练出我国应急管理基础研究最近5—10年内迫切需要研究解决的关键科学问题,主要包括五大板块：应急管理体系的复杂性科学问题,应急心理与行为的科学问题,突发公共事件的信息获取及分析的科学问题,多因素风险评估和多尺度预测预警的科学问题,以及复杂条件下应急决策的科学问题。文中初步给出了这五个板块的内容。突发公共事件应急管理中科学问题的研究和突破,需要理工文管(管理科学、工程科学、信息科学、生命科学、基础自然科学、经济学、社会学、心理学、法学、历史学等)多学科各自的努力及其交叉与融合。

Emergency management system is an open complex giant system with the characteristics of multi-agent, multi-factor, multi-scale, multi-parameter. It has many profound complex problems. The key phases of emergency management include risk evaluation, monitoring and detection, prediction and pre-warning, decisionmaking and commanding, rescuing, and re-building, etc. Also it is involved with human beings＇ psychology and behavior under disaster environment. In this paper, five main basic scientific problems, which are urgently solved in the future 5--10 years, are presented through analysis for typical cases of emergency incidents and based on the characteristics of large-span and multiple-discipline of emergency management basic research： complexity of emergency management system, psychology and behavior in emergency management, information gathering and analysis of emergency incidents, multi-factor risk evaluation, multi-scale prediction and pre-warning, emergency decision-making under complex situations. In addition, the detailed research contents are provided for the five main basic scientific problems. Research on emergency management for public incidents needs the multiple disciplines including management science, engineering science, information science, life science, fundamental natural science, economics, sociology, psychology, law and history, etc.