基于两种不同全球模式的区域数值天气预报性能对比

The Comparison of Two Experiments of Regional Numerical Prediction based on The two Different Global Model

分别用T213和AVN全球分析资料提供初始场的猜值和侧边界条件,利用MM5 V3中尺度模式对2002年9-11月气象资料进行模拟试验,重点分析两种方案对强降水中心、降水分布的模拟能力,并相对实测降水、地面和高空基本气象要素的观测进行了统计检验。通过对比发现,采用不同的大尺度模式提供的初边值,对区域天气预报是有显著影响的。

Two experiments of numerical prediction using T213 data and AVN data as initial field and lateral boundary condition separately in MM5 during September to November of 2002 have been conducted. We analyze and compare the predication ability of two experiments to the distribution and intensity of rainfall, and give out the results of statistical verifications between the prediction and the observations of the rainfall and the fundamental elements. The comparisons indicate that using AVN data as initial field and lateral boundary condition is different from using T213.