泥石流危险性分区及其在泥石流减灾中的应用

Debris flow risk zoning and its application in disaster mitigation

泥石流是一种突发性山地灾害,至今尚缺乏准确有效的预报方法。减灾工程也只能对一定规模的泥石流起到防御作用。泥石流危险性分区在泥石流减灾中具有重要作用。以泥石流运动数值模拟为基础,以数值模拟获得的流速和流深等参量为分区指标的危险性分区是泥石流危险性分区研究的重点和发展方向。其中,泥石流危险性动量和动能分区充分反映了泥石流的破坏能力,可以提供更为精确的定量化的分区结果。该类分区方法在城镇等有重要危害对象的泥石流减灾中具有广泛的应用。不仅可以应用于泥石流危险区和安全区的划定、泥石流灾害预估、泥石流临灾预案制定、泥石流抢险救灾方案制定和泥石流灾情评估等,还可以应用到山区土地利用规划、山区城镇建设规划和财产保险评估等领域,并起到防灾和减灾的作用。

Debris flow risk zoning is an important method for debris flow disaster mitigation. Debris flow is a kind of paroxysmal mountain hazard, which is diffieult to be predicted, and dehris flow control works are effective only for the certain scale of debris flow under the design standard. The debris flow risk zoning based on the velocity and depth distributions computed with debris flow movement numerical simulation is the key direction of its research. Among this kind risk zoning methods, the methods based on momentum and kinetic energy of debris flow may provide more precise quantitative zoning results and reflect destroying ability of debris flow. This kind of debris flow risk zoning is applied widely in debris flow disaster mitigation for mountain towns and other important objects. It may be used not only in measures of debris flow disaster mitigation such as dangerous and safe zone determination, advance estimate of the situation of disaster, counterplan making, disaster-relief program and assessment of the situation of disaster, but also in socialization management such as mountain land use plan, mountain towns layout and estimate of property insurance.